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Too good.
On Tester vs Rehberg
There seems to be a lot of attention given to a possible Tester v. Rehberg race for senate in 2012. Matt Singer, over at Left in the West, had some heart warming analysis on the subject,
… I imply Dennis Rehberg’s reelection is likely…
The flip side of this, though, is the way right-wingers talk about Jon Tester. Their dislike of him colors their ability to evaluate his strengths as a candidate. Not only is he becoming well-liked by the middle but he is absolutely beloved by the Democratic base — as became clear at Mansfield-Metcalf. That strength is worth a heck of a lot.
2012 is a long way off — and the hypothetical matchup depends on a ton of variables. Does Rehberg vacate a relatively safe seat and an Approps position to run a tough race? Is a popular John McCain or Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton up for re-election? Does one or the other opt to run for Governor instead? Is Tester sitting on Senate Approps? And so on and so on.
There are also questions of party strength, organizational ability, and depth of operation. Rehberg is largely consigned to running for re-election this cycle because he can’t leave open the option of a leaderless GOP in Montana. In 2012 if the GOP is not in a better place, Rehberg may be unwilling to roll the dice.
Is it still good?
Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama’s 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday.
The survey showed the extended Democratic primary campaign creating divisions among supporters of Obama and rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and suggests a tight race for the presidency in November no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee.
Is this continuing primary battle still good for democracy? Let’s just weigh the impacts: a long primary is good for the democratic process (sounds good); but a long election might help McCain win, which is very, very bad for democracy (sounds more important than the primary, to me).
